Is 2026 a good time to sell property in Portugal? Prices, buyer numbers and the 7.5% IMT effect

What do prices and sales numbers show in 2026?

Two INE (national statistics office) series answer this, and in 2026 they point in different directions. The house price index measures how much prices paid have changed. The number of sales counts completed home sales from tax-authority deed records. Prices are still rising fast. Sales have fallen for three quarters in a row.

Quarter	Prices, change on a year	Prices, change on the quarter	Homes sold	Sales, change on a year	Value of sales
Q3 2024	+9.8%	+3.7%	40,909	+19.4%	€9.05bn
Q4 2024	+11.6%	+3.0%	45,214	+32.5%	€10.17bn
Q1 2025	+16.3%	+4.8%	41,358	+25.0%	€9.62bn
Q2 2025	+17.2%	+4.8%	42,889	+15.5%	€10.27bn
Q3 2025	+17.7%	+4.1%	42,481	+3.8%	€10.50bn
Q4 2025	+18.9%	+4.0%	43,084	−4.7%	€10.78bn
Q1 2026	+17.8%	+3.8%	37,745	−8.7%	€9.92bn
Q2 2026	+16.5%	+3.6%	40,142	−6.4%	€10.70bn

INE house price index and dwelling sales, as tabulated by the construction federation AICCOPN from INE’s releases of 30 June and 22 September 2026.

What it means for a seller:

• Prices are at the highest level INE has recorded. The index rose 17.6% in 2025, the biggest annual rise on record, and another 7.5% in the first half of 2026 (our arithmetic on the index, 106.2 to 114.2). Existing homes rose faster than new builds: +18.0% against +12.3% in Q2 2026.
• Growth is slowing, not reversing. The annual rate has eased from a peak of 18.9% in Q4 2025 to 16.5%. Every quarter still added more than 3.5%.
• Fewer homes are changing hands. In the first half of 2026, 77,887 homes sold, down 7.5% on a year earlier. The value of sales still rose 3.7%, to €20.6bn, because each sale was dearer.
• Asking prices are rising more slowly than prices paid. idealista, the biggest portal, put the national average asking price at €3,228/m² in September 2026, a record but only 7.9% up on a year. In Q1 2026 only 8% of its listings had a price cut.

INE published its local price figures for Q2 2026 (by municipality and parish) on 23 October 2026; the table below uses them.

Who is buying, and are there fewer buyers from abroad?

Almost all buyers live in Portugal. In Q2 2026, buyers with a Portuguese tax address bought 38,252 homes, 95% of the total and 93% of the money. Buyers with a tax address abroad, which INE uses in place of nationality, have fallen for three years running.

Period	Homes bought by buyers domiciled abroad	Change on a year	Share of all sales	Their spending	Share of all spending
2022	10,722	+20.2%	6.4%	€3.62bn	11%
2023	10,391	−3.1%	7.6%	€3.57bn	13%
2024	9,774	−5.9%	6.3%	€3.46bn	10%
2025	8,471	−13.3%	5.0%	€3.39bn	8%
Q1 2026	1,770	−15.6%	4.7%	€0.80bn	8%
Q2 2026	1,890	−10.3%	4.7%	€0.80bn	7%
First half 2026	3,660	−13.0%	4.7%	€1.59bn	8%

INE, via AICCOPN. Share of spending rounded as published.

Three points matter for sellers.

1. Foreign buyers still pay more. In 2025 their average purchase was about €400,000, against €234,000 for buyers based in Portugal; in Q2 2026, €421,000 against €259,000 (our arithmetic on INE totals). Fewer of them means fewer buyers at the top of most local markets.
2. The fall began before the new tax. Numbers were already down 13.3% in 2025 and 15.6% in Q1 2026, before the 7.5% IMT rate started on 25 May 2026. The Q2 fall (−10.3%) was smaller than Q1’s, so the tax’s effect cannot yet be seen in INE’s figures.
3. The mix is shifting. In Q2 2026 purchases by buyers from the EU fell 14.9% (946 homes); purchases by buyers from the rest of the world, which since Brexit includes the UK, fell 5.1% (944 homes). INE publishes no split by country.

The one early sign of the tax comes from a mortgage broker’s data, not INE: non-residents’ share of completed mortgages fell to 9.7% in Q2 2026 from 16.8% a year earlier, while their share of mortgage requests held at 13.3% (idealista/news, 27 August 2026).

How do Lisbon, the Algarve, Porto and Madeira compare?

INE publishes local prices (median € per m² paid) and regional sales counts. The price column uses the municipality where that is the market people mean, and the sales columns use INE’s region, so read across with that in mind.

Market	INE median paid, 12 months to Jun 2026	Change on a year	Sales, Q2 2026	Sales, change on Q2 2025	Sales, first half 2026 vs 2025	Value of sales, Q2 change	Buyers from abroad pay
Lisbon (Lisboa municipality; sales: Grande Lisboa)	€5,192/m²	+14.7%	7,581	−7.4%	−8.8%	+1.6%	+28%
Porto (Porto municipality; sales: Porto metropolitan area)	€3,631/m²	+18.7%	6,299	−11.2%	−10.5%	−1.8%	+27% (Q2 2026)
Algarve (region)	€3,338/m²	+14.2%	2,824	−12.4%	−11.6%	−4.5%	+25%
Madeira (region; Funchal €3,538/m², +10.4%)	€2,690/m²	+5.1%	672	−15.2%	−20.7%	−2.8%	+30% (Q2 2026)
Portugal	€2,264/m²		40,142	−6.4%	−7.5%	+4.2%

INE local housing price statistics (23 October 2026) and INE sales by region via AICCOPN. Regional sales changes, value changes and the foreign premium (buyers domiciled abroad against buyers domiciled in Portugal, per m²) are our arithmetic on INE figures.

• Lisbon is the strongest market. The value of sales rose even though there were fewer of them, and in the May 2026 RICS/Confidencial Imobiliário agents’ survey Lisbon was the only region where new buyer enquiries were rising (net balance +17%). Asking prices in the city reached €6,256/m² in September 2026, up 4.4% (idealista). See selling in Lisbon.
• Porto prices are rising faster than Lisbon’s, but enquiries were falling in May (net balance −8%) and sales in the metropolitan area were down 11.2% in Q2. See selling in Porto.
• The Algarve depends most on foreign buyers. It took 29.7% of all purchases by buyers domiciled abroad in 2025 and 42.4% of their spending (INE, via Jornal PT50), roughly one in five Algarve sales by our arithmetic. Sales and their value both fell in Q2, and agents in the RICS survey reported falling prices and enquiries in May (both −10%). See selling in the Algarve.
• Madeira has the weakest figures: price growth of 5.1% and sales down a fifth in the first half. Madeira’s IMT brackets for residents are 25% wider than the mainland’s, so the gap between a resident and a non-resident buyer is bigger there. See selling in Madeira.

What does the 7.5% non-resident IMT add for a foreign buyer?

Since 25 May 2026, a buyer who is not tax resident in Portugal, and never has been, pays IMT (property transfer tax) at a flat 7.5% of the whole price of a home (Decree-Law 97/2026, IMT Code article 17(10) to (12)). Residents pay a sliding scale. The buyer pays IMT, not the seller.

Price (mainland)	IMT, resident buying a main home	IMT, resident buying a second home	IMT, non-resident	Extra for a non-resident (vs second home)	Extra as % of price
€300,000	€10,542	€11,606	€22,500	€10,895	3.6%
€500,000	€26,237	€27,300	€37,500	€10,200	2.0%
€1,000,000	€60,000	€60,000	€75,000	€15,000	1.5%

2026 IMT tables (AT Ofício Circulado 40129/2026), calculated with our IMT calculator. Stamp duty of 0.8% (€2,400, €4,000, €8,000) is the same for everyone. Against a resident buying a main home, the extra is €11,958 at €300,000 and €11,263 at €500,000.

What that means for you as a seller

A buyer works to a total budget, not a price. Take a buyer with €540,000 to spend on the price plus IMT and stamp duty:

Buyer	Highest price they can pay	IMT	Stamp duty	Total
Resident buying a second home	€507,996	€27,940	€4,064	€540,000
Non-resident	€498,615	€37,396	€3,989	€540,000
Difference in what they can offer you	€9,381

So a non-resident buyer on the same budget can offer you about €9,400 less (1.8%). In practice:

• The effect is largest below €1.15 million, which is most of the market. At €1,000,000 a resident already pays a flat 6%, so the gap is 1.5 points.
• Above €1,150,853 there is no gap on the mainland: everyone pays 7.5%. In Madeira and the Azores the flat 7.5% for everyone starts at €1,438,566, and below it the gap is wider (on a €400,000 home, €30,000 for a non-resident against €16,257 for a resident buying a second home).
• Some buyers get the difference back. A buyer who becomes Portuguese tax resident within two years, or lets the home within six months at no more than €2,300 a month for 36 of the first 60 months, can claim a refund. Anyone who was ever tax resident in Portugal pays the normal rates. A buyer who is relocating may weigh that when making an offer.
• Land and commercial property are outside the rule. It applies to homes only.
• Your Portuguese-based buyers are untouched. They made 95% of purchases in Q2 2026. If your home is a town flat or a family house that suits them, price it against the domestic median, not the foreign one.

The 2027 State Budget proposal, presented on 8 October 2026, would raise IMT brackets by 2.3% for 2027. It is a proposal, not law, and it does not change the 7.5% rate.

Are mortgages getting harder for buyers?

A little. Banco de Portugal figures show the average rate on new home loans rose for the fifth month running to 3.00% in August 2026, the highest since April 2025, after a low of about 2.8% in March. That is still among the lowest in the euro area, where the average was 3.6%. New lending fell about 12% in August, to €2.55bn.

The rules also tightened. Banco de Portugal’s new macroprudential recommendation, which applies to credit assessments from 1 August 2026, lowers the maximum debt-service-to-income ratio from 50% to 45%, with exceptions on up to 10% of each bank’s lending. Maturity is capped at 40 years for borrowers aged 35 or under and 35 years for older borrowers. The loan-to-value caps remain 90% for an own permanent home and 80% for other purposes, such as a holiday home. There is no separate rule for non-residents in the recommendation; lower loan-to-values offered to them are bank practice.

For sellers this mainly affects the Portuguese first-time and family buyer. Most foreign buyers of holiday homes pay cash or borrow less.

What changes in 2026 affect you as a seller?

Change	What it is	From	Law	Read more
Capital gains tax on 50% at progressive rates	Non-residents and residents are taxed on half the gain at 12.5% to 48% (2026 brackets), with the rate set by worldwide income, plus a solidarity surcharge above €80,000. The flat 28% rate for non-residents is gone	1 Jan 2023; 2026 brackets in force	Lei 24-D/2022; Lei 73-A/2025	Capital gains tax for non-residents
Rent-reinvestment exemption	Gain excluded if the proceeds, less any mortgage repaid, buy Portuguese homes let for at least 36 of 60 months at no more than €2,300 a month. Non-residents qualify on the law’s wording; the tax authority has not confirmed it	Sales 1 Jan 2026 to 31 Dec 2029	Decree-Law 97/2026, IRS Code art. 10(7)–(9)	Reinvestment exemption
7.5% IMT for non-resident buyers	Changes what foreign buyers can pay (above)	25 May 2026	Decree-Law 97/2026, IMT Code art. 17(10)–(12)	IMT calculator
NHR periods ending	NHR lasts 10 years from the year you became resident. 2016 arrivals’ last NHR year was 2025; 2017 arrivals’ is 2026; and so on to 2029. Foreign pensions then face 12.5% to 48%	2026–2029	IRS Code art. 16	NHR ending
Deed must state the licence position	Every deed must say whether the urban planning title (habitation licence) was shown, declared to exist, or doesn’t exist; if the statement is missing, either party can seek to annul the sale	1 Oct 2026	Decree-Law 108/2026; date set by Decree-Law 155-B/2026	Unlicensed works
Tighter mortgage rules	Debt-service cap 45% instead of 50% for buyers who borrow	1 Aug 2026	Banco de Portugal recommendation	Section above

Two older reliefs still apply. If the home is your own and permanent home in Portugal, the gain is excluded when you reinvest in another main home in Portugal or the EU/EEA (IRS Code article 10(5)). If you or your spouse are 65 or over, or retired, reinvesting the proceeds in a qualifying pension or insurance product within six months also excludes the gain (details).

In September 2026 the Government approved a proposal to cut income tax rates again for 2026 income. It is not yet law; plan on the current brackets.

Do NHR expiries mean more homes for sale? Registered NHR beneficiaries rose from 20,483 in 2017 to 41,229 in 2019, and those cohorts reach the end of their 10 years between 2026 and 2029. Some will sell, but no official figure counts sales by former NHR holders, so any claim that they will “flood the market” is a guess. The supply data point the other way: agents in the May 2026 RICS survey reported falling new instructions to sell (net balance −19%), so supply of homes for sale was shrinking, not growing.

So is 2026 a good time to sell?

Weighing the data:

In favour of selling now

• Prices paid are at a record and still rising, by 3.6% in Q2 2026 alone.
• Supply is tight: agents report fewer new listings, which supports prices.
• Domestic demand, 95% of buyers, is intact, and Portuguese mortgage rates are low by euro-area standards.
• Several tax rules favour 2026 to 2029 sales, notably the rent-reinvestment exemption.

Against, or reasons for caution

• Sales have fallen for three quarters in a row, so homes take more effort to sell than in 2024–25.
• Buyers from abroad are at their lowest share in the series shown here, and most now pay 7.5% IMT.
• Mortgage rates have risen for five months and the debt-service cap is lower.
• The Algarve and Madeira, the markets most exposed to foreign buyers, are the softest.

Nobody can tell you where prices go next, and we do not forecast them. Agents in the May 2026 RICS survey expected prices to keep rising over the next 12 months (net balance +51% nationally, +38% in the Algarve), but that is opinion, and the Algarve reading for prices over the previous three months had turned negative. The practical question is less “is the market good?” than “is my price right?”. Asking prices in most areas we track run 10% to 40% above what homes actually sell for. A home priced from completed sales sells in this market; one priced from neighbours’ adverts often doesn’t. Get a free price estimate from two or three agencies, then run the net figure through the selling calculator.

When does it make sense to wait?

Waiting rarely pays for its own sake: carrying costs (IMI, condominium, insurance, utilities) run to a few thousand euros a year, and nobody knows whether prices will be higher next year. But there are specific cases where waiting, or preparing first, is the better decision.

1. You have owned the property for less than 24 months. The inflation coefficient that reduces the taxable gain only applies after 24 months. Selling just before that date can cost you tax.
2. It is your main home and you haven’t lived there for 12 months. Main-home reinvestment relief needs the home to have been your tax address for the 12 months before the sale.
3. The paperwork doesn’t match the property. An unlicensed pool, annexe or extension, or an area that differs from the caderneta predial (tax record), will come up in the buyer’s checks, and from 1 October 2026 the deed must state the licence position. Fixing it first usually costs less than the discount a buyer will ask for. See unlicensed works.
4. Your income is unusually high this year. For non-residents the rate on the gain is set by worldwide income. If this year includes a one-off (a bonus, a business sale, a pension lump sum), completing in January rather than December moves the gain into a different tax year. Check the effect in the selling calculator.
5. Your NHR period is ending and you plan to reinvest in another main home. Main-home relief needs the home you sell to have been your tax address for the 12 months before the sale, so moving out of Portugal before you sell can lose it. Sell first, then move. See NHR ending.
6. You plan to buy and let another home in Portugal. The rent-reinvestment exemption runs to 31 December 2029 and allows reinvestment up to 36 months after the sale, so there is no deadline pressure in 2026; plan the purchase and the lease first. See reinvestment exemption.
7. Your home only suits buyers from abroad, at under €1.15 million, in the Algarve or Madeira. Waiting will not remove the 7.5% IMT. If you must sell, pricing to the buyer’s total cost is the lever; if you don’t need to sell, letting is an option to compare (selling a short-let property).

What is not a good reason to wait: the 2026 inflation coefficient table (due around November 2026) and INE’s next quarterly local price release. Neither changes whether a buyer will pay your price.

How long does selling take?

No official source publishes how long Portuguese homes take to sell. INE counts completed sales but not days on the market, and our Algarve selling guide found no credible days-on-market figure for the region (a “25 months to sell” Algarve figure still quoted online dates from the 2011–12 downturn). Portal figures on how long listings stay online exist, but a listing removed is not always a home sold, so treat them with care.

What the data do show:

Indicator	Latest figure	Source
Homes sold, Q2 2026	40,142, −6.4% on a year	INE
Listings with a price cut, Q1 2026	8% nationally	idealista
New buyer enquiries, May 2026	Net balance +6% nationally; Lisbon +17%, Porto −8%, Algarve −10%	RICS / Confidencial Imobiliário
Agreed sales, May 2026	Net balance +9% nationally	Same survey
New instructions to sell, May 2026	Net balance −19% (fewer homes coming to market)	Same survey

Once you accept an offer, the legal steps are predictable:

1. The CPCV (promissory contract). The buyer pays a deposit, commonly 10% to 30%. If the buyer withdraws they lose it; if you withdraw you usually return double (Civil Code articles 441 and 442).
2. The buyer’s finance and checks. A buyer with a mortgage needs the bank’s valuation and approval; a cash buyer can move faster.
3. The escritura (the deed) at a notary, lawyer or Casa Pronta desk. You need the certidão permanente (land registry certificate), the caderneta predial, the energy certificate and, for a flat, the condominium’s statement that no charges are owed. If you live abroad, sign through a power of attorney (procuração), notarised and apostilled if signed outside Portugal. See power of attorney.

There is no withholding of tax at the deed. The gain goes on your Portuguese return (Modelo 3, Annex G) between 1 April and 30 June of the following year. If your home has had viewings but no offers after six to eight weeks, read why a house isn’t selling before you cut the price.

Key points

• Prices paid were 16.5% higher in Q2 2026 than a year earlier (INE), a record level, but the rate is slowing and sales fell 6.4% to 40,142, the third quarterly fall in a row.
• Buyers domiciled abroad bought 4.7% of homes in the first half of 2026, down 13.0%, and the fall started before the 7.5% IMT.
• The 7.5% IMT adds €10,200 to €15,000 to a foreign buyer’s bill at €300,000 to €1 million; on a €540,000 budget a non-resident can offer about €9,400 less than a resident.
• Lisbon is the strongest market; the Algarve (−12.4% sales) and Madeira (−15.2%) are the softest.
• Wait only for a reason: under 24 months’ ownership, under 12 months’ residence for main-home relief, licence problems, or a high-income tax year.
• Price from completed sales, not adverts: get a free price estimate and check your net proceeds in the selling calculator.